Optimistic about the follow-up fundamental repair, the head housing enterprises with core resources and product premium will benefit more from the real estate industry. After a round of big waves, some real estate enterprises are still sticking to the market against the trend in the first 23 years. In the context of the gradual release of positive policies for the industry, we are optimistic about market confidence and fundamental repair, and we expect that the deep layout of core cities and the head housing companies with the ability of product premium will benefit more. Key recommendations: 1) A share development: urban construction development, investment promotion Shekou, Jianfa shares, Binjiang GroupPandoraboxarcade2) Hong Kong stock development: Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, China overseas Development, Longhu Group, Yuexiu Real EstatePandoraboxarcade3) property management company: Poly property, China Resources Vientiane Life, Riverside Service, Investment accumulation, everything Cloud. Performance: profit margins continue to decline, short-term results are still under adjustment pressure for 23 years, 14 sample housing enterprises (hereinafter referred to as "overall housing enterprises") revenue + 4Pandoraboxarcade.5%, the growth rate is 1% wider than that of 22 years.Pandoraboxarcade.3pct, mainly due to the carry-over rhythm, revenue growth widened from a high base. The overall profit margins of housing enterprises have continued to decline since 2019, and are still in the process of bottoming out, mainly because most of the projects carried forward in the past 23 years are high land price projects acquired by housing enterprises in 2019-21, and the real estate market has been in a weak recovery in the past two years. Most real estate enterprises have carried out price promotion activities, resulting in further squeezing profit margins. At present, the overall performance reserve of housing enterprises is relatively thin, and the carry-over profit margin of the development business is still at the bottom stage. Looking forward to 2024, we expect that the overall housing enterprises will continue to face greater adjustment pressure on the performance side. Sales: central state-owned enterprises are relatively leading in performance, under weak supply for 24 years or under pressure for 23 years, the total contract sales amount of housing enterprises is-3.3% compared with the same period last year, although it has declined somewhat, but it is still better than the average sales decline of 18% of the top 100 real estate enterprises, only 7 of the 14 sample real estate enterprises have achieved positive sales growth, and they are all central and local state-owned enterprises. According to the 2023 results announcement / performance conference, without considering the supply of newly acquired projects in the current year, the total planned supply of 8 sample housing enterprises in 2024 is-17% year-on-year, of which the planned new supply is-20% year-on-year. Looking forward to 2024, due to the weak overall supply, we expect that the overall sales side of housing enterprises will face some adjustment pressure. Expansion: fixed investment by sales, exchanging high-quality assets for 23 years, although the scale of land transactions is still shrinking, the amount and intensity of land taken by the sample housing enterprises are higher than those at the low base of 22 years, and the margin of expansion is slightly better. By the end of 23, the total land reserve of the sample housing enterprises was about 380 million square meters, down 13.9% from the same period last year. At present, the soil storage level of the sample housing enterprises is at the lowest level in the same period since 2019, indicating that although the land acquisition by housing enterprises has increased slightly compared with the same period last year, the overall land storage is still in the de-inventory stage. According to the contents of the 2023 annual performance conference of the sample housing enterprises, the follow-up land acquisition of the real estate enterprises will continue the strategy of "fixed investment with sales + focusing on the core areas of the core cities". Holding property: the recovery is strong, the value of high-quality commercial assets is expected to be released for 23 years, and the commercial asset operation business of real estate enterprises has ushered in a strong recovery, of which the business income of commercial assets operation of 11 sample real estate enterprises is + 22.7% compared with the same period last year. To a certain extent, the impact of the downward development business on the overall performance has been reduced. By sorting out the relevant contents of performance announcements and performance conferences, we believe that key real estate enterprises have the following changes in commercial property investment and operation: 1) some companies have indicated that they regard commercial assets investment and operation as an important strategic development direction in the future, and give relatively clear performance guidelines. 2) the reclassification of revenue / core profit composition by some companies will help to enhance the financial transparency of the segment business and facilitate the capital market to revalue the real estate operation business. 3) some companies say that they may realize the release of the value of investment real estate through their asset management platform in the future. Risk hints: industry policy risks; industry downside risks; some real estate business risks. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.