Since AprilHouseoffunfreecoins2020gamehuntersThe price of petroleum asphalt has experienced a sharp rise and fall. In the first half of the decade, asphalt prices made a continuous upward breakthrough under the absolute drive of crude oil prices, with asphalt weighted breaking through the high of 3877 yuan / ton on April 15, and refreshing the high level since the National Day holiday last year; and in the second half of the decade, with the expected cooling of the geopolitical situation, the downward trend of crude oil prices dragged down asphalt prices synchronously, and gave up a large number of previous increases.
I. fundamentals
On the supply side, the overall national refinery operating level has declined since April, mainly due to the maintenance of domestic refineries one by one. As of April 17, data show that the current national operating rate is 27.Houseoffunfreecoins2020gamehunters.2%, slightly higher than 26.5% in early April but lower than 32.7% in mid-March, and significantly lower than the level in the same period in previous years, which means that with the advent of the peak season of asphalt consumption, there may be significant upward space for subsequent asphalt production. In terms of output, Mysteel data show that asphalt output of independent refineries in China has gradually decreased since mid-late March, with output of only 215000 tons in the week up to April 19, a drop of 27.2% from the March high, mainly due to heavy losses in refineries and failure to put in a large amount of capacity. From then on, it is not difficult to see that the supply side of asphalt is in a relatively tight situation at present, but the follow-up space is higher.
On the demand side, the operating rate of road asphalt continues to pick up. At present, the operating rate of modified asphalt has reached 25%, an increase of 3% compared with the previous year, thanks to the traditional factors of domestic seasonal demand warming, but from a year-on-year point of view, domestic road laying demand has declined significantly compared with previous years, which may lead to a relatively limited boost effect. At the same time, there is recent market news that the United States may re-impose sanctions on Venezuela, which means that there will be a decline in Venezuelan production and shipments, although there is the possibility that a large amount of capacity will be returned to China in the short term. but in the medium to long term, this will be another boost to domestic asphalt prices.
In terms of inventory, the trend of asphalt inventory accumulation since this year has been continued to a certain extent in April. In terms of social treasury, the social inventory of 76 sample enterprises across the country in mid-April has continued to accumulate to 2.175 million tons, nearly double the increase at the beginning of the year, which will suppress the price of asphalt to a certain extent. In terms of the factory warehouse, although the overall level has not been effectively accumulated in April, it has been significantly boosted compared with the same period last year, and now it has reached 1.089 million tons, which is basically the same as at the end of March. This is basically in line with our previous expectations for the factory warehouse to go to the warehouse, but also shows that the consumption repair of asphalt on the domestic market is gradually falling to the ground, which will become one of the supporting factors of asphalt price in the later stage.
Second, profit base difference
In terms of profit, the price difference between Shanghai petroleum asphalt and SC crude oil is now around 130 yuan / ton, which is about 15 yuan / ton lower than the high point in early April, which is basically in line with previous expectations. Considering that the current oil price has a good downward trend, although there is a certain upward possibility under the influence of geographical factors, the space may be relatively limited, at the same time, with the further release of domestic asphalt demand, the strong level of inner disk asphalt price may have a certain upward possibility, which will lead to a certain number of opportunities for the subsequent cracking price difference of multi-BU empty SC.
In terms of basis, Shandong mainstream price corresponding basis has been in a continuous strengthening trend since April, which is in line with the previous sell hedging operation expectations. For now, the base gap of Shandong asphalt rebounded after hitting a low of-177 yuan / ton in early April, which to a certain extent also showed a strong level of domestic spot, and as mentioned in the previous release of demand, it is foreseeable that there may be further upward expectations for spot prices, which will provide more entry opportunities for insurance. But at the same time, it is worth noting that the current Shandong spot price base has been in the same period in previous years relatively high, follow-up need to pay attention to.
III. Cost
In terms of the price of crude oil at the cost side, the fundamentals have remained tense and stable recently, and the tightening of the supply side is hedged with the negative feedback of the demand side and the continuous accumulation of the inventory side, which leads to a gradual marginal weakening of the supporting force of oil prices. In terms of financial attributes, market expectations for interest rate cuts have further cooled, which may lead to high interest rates in the second and third quarters to suppress oil prices. However, the geographical attribute is still the main factor affecting the oil price, and the uncertainty is high. Therefore, on the whole, perhaps the core factors affecting the price of crude oil will still focus on the fluctuation of the geo-situation. when the geo-factors remain stable or further cool, the oil price may continue to return the previous risk premium and move the center down. this will suppress the price of asphalt to a certain extent.
IV. Views and prospects
Recently, when both ends of supply and demand are still weak, the performance of asphalt price is still in a relatively weak situation, and the fluctuation of absolute price will still follow the price of crude oil. Under the influence of the gradual release of domestic rigid demand and the reduction of international imports and other factors, the strong level of asphalt may be expected, so the subsequent asphalt may have a certain price difference and a chance to sell and hedge.
For reference only.
Brief introduction of the author:
Fan Lei, qualification certificate number: F03101876, graduated from Trinity University in Canada with a master's degree in business administration. He has a solid theoretical foundation and a certain international perspective. Since entering the futures industry, it has been committed to the research and analysis of crude oil series energy varieties and non-ferrous metal series, and is good at starting with fundamental analysis and combining theory to build a variety analysis framework to study and judge the market. and adhere to professional knowledge and sincere attitude to create value for customers.